Availability Bias

The availability bias is a Cognitive Bias - 20230221095209 that refers to the tendency for people to overestimate the likelihood of an event occurring based on how easily examples of that event come to mind. This bias occurs because people tend to rely more heavily on information that is easily available or salient, rather than considering all the relevant information.

For example, if someone is asked to estimate the likelihood of dying in a plane crash, they might be more likely to overestimate the risk if they can think of several recent plane crashes that have made headlines, even if plane crashes are actually quite rare. This is because the recent plane crashes are more "available" in their memory and therefore feel more likely to happen again.

The availability bias can affect people's judgment in many areas of life, such as investment decisions, risk assessment, and public policy. For example, if a news story about a crime in a certain neighborhood is widely covered, people may perceive that area as being more dangerous than it actually is.

To avoid the availability bias, it is important to consider multiple sources of information, seek out data and statistics, and try to put the available information in context.

Examples from Thinking, Fast and Slow

• “Because of the coincidence of two planes crashing last month, she now prefers to take the train. That’s silly. The risk hasn’t really changed; it is an availability bias.”
• “He underestimates the risks of indoor pollution because there are few media stories on them. That’s an availability effect. He should look at the statistics.
• She has been watching too many spy movies recently, so she’s seeing conspiracies everywhere.”
• “The CEO has had several successes in a row, so failure doesn’t come easily to her mind. The availability bias is making her overconfident.”
• "She’s raving about an innovation that has large benefits and no costs. I suspect the affect heuristic.”
• “This is an availability cascade: a nonevent that is inflated by the media and the public until it fills our TV screens and becomes all anyone is talking about.”

META

Status:: #wiki/notes/mature
Plantations:: Cognitive Bias - 20230221095209
References:: Thinking, Fast and Slow