Backtesting is the process of evaluating a Trading System or Investment Portfolio by simulating its performance using historical data. The idea behind backtesting is to see how a strategy or portfolio would have performed in the past, so that an investor or trader can estimate how it might perform in the future.
Backtesting is typically done by applying a set of rules or a trading algorithm to historical data, and then simulating trades based on those rules. The results of the simulation are then analyzed to determine the strategy's performance, such as its returns, risk, and Drawdowns.
Backtesting can be done on different time frames and using different data sets, depending on the strategy being evaluated. For example, a day trader might backtest a strategy using daily data over a year, while a long-term investor might backtest a strategy using monthly data over a decade.
Backtesting has some limitations. One of them is that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Also, backtesting can suffer from survivorship bias, since it only uses data from surviving companies or funds. Additionally, it does not take into account other important aspects such as impact of taxes, slippage and execution cost.
Status:: #wiki/notes/mature
Plantations:: Trading System Testing - 20230221104552
References:: Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems, Naked Forex